The mortgage market of early 2023 has changed substantially from a year ago. For the first time, some homeowners are hearing terms like ‘trigger rate’ and seeing payments double.
“The mortgage market now is uncertain – and the market hates uncertainty,” said MortgageDave explaining that we used to be in a “North American market,” following about six months behind the US, but there has been a shift to a global market.
“While the conflict in Ukraine is devastating for its people, subtler impacts are far-reaching. If the war ends, it would settle the bond market and stabilize the fixed rate mortgage market.”
He credits the Bank of Canada with some aggressive action that has stabilized inflation, but the consequence has been high rates.
“I don’t see prime going up, barring any worldwide events,I think we have seen the plateau,” said Bruynesteyn. “We may see a reduction by the end of the year but I don’t really expect it until early 2024.”
Context is important. Rates today aren’t devastatingly high, they are just not as extreme as we have seen recently, he said.
“We went so historically low. Rates aren’t insane. We just went so low we were spoiled rotten. I have always suggested a variable rate because they have been better over time but when rates were sub-two percent, I put many clients into a fixed rate.”
The fluctuations have influenced how some clients are choosing their mortgages.
“Typically clients get a five-year term. Right now I am putting a lot of clients into two-year terms because we don’t know where we are going. Two years ties into the US election which typically sees a reduction in rates.”
The changes to variable rates have been difficult for some homeowners.
“It is tough on some of my clients on variable rates, some of my clients on variable rates saw payments almost double,” he said, adding he doesn’t like trigger rate products. Whenever possible, MortgageDave chooses to put clients with lenders that ensure payments rise with interest rates going up, rather than being hit with a significant trigger rate.
“If you don’t change your payment as the rates go up you are paying more and more interest. I don’t like those products as they are not best for my clients. Payments should go up with interest rates. People don’t want to manage their mortgage – that’s my job.
“When you get a mortgage with me, you are going to hear from me on the anniversary, and every time the Bank of Canada reviews their prime rate – eight times a year – you get my newsletter discussing what this means. As you get closer to maturity I will communicate with you nine months out, six months out and four months out – because you have a life and don’t need to be worrying about your mortgage – that is my job. Dump that stress on me – it’s my job to get it done.”
One of the biggest trends MortgageDave sees is families leveraging equity to help adult children get into real estate.
“The cost of living in Lynn Valley is high. I am seeing parents wanting to help their children stay in the city. There are more people looking at reverse mortgages to start the wealth transfer now rather than later.”